All eyes will be on the west coast tonight when the two NFC West rivals meet once again in a rematch to last year’s NFC Championship game.
San Francisco 49ers
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average takes into account the quality of offensive opponents.
All though exceeding expectations by making the NFC Championship game last season as the sixth overall seed, the 49ers decided to change quarterbacks this off-season when they named Trey Lance as starter.
Being the third overall pick comes with a lot of expectation, especially when a team trades three first-round picks to take you. Yet a year down the track and we still don’t know how good Trey Lance really is. Playing college ball in Division Two and then sitting out the majority of his time as a rookie, meant for a lot of unknowns coming into the year.
Having a offensive genius as a head coach in Kyle Shanahan with the traits that Lance possesses meant for an potential exciting offence that could cause havoc. Well, unfortunately in Week 2 that dream was put on hold when Lance went down with a broken ankle that now keeps him out for the season.
That means the man that led this side last year gets another chance. Jimmy Garoppolo is a trusty veteran, but in his game and a half since returning as starter, things don’t feel the same as they used to be. He is coming off a sloppy performance against the Broncos last week. Whether he has to scrub off the rust, we’ll find out on Monday Night Football.
One thing that has been solid and consistent for this team is their defence. Losing defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to the Jets a few years ago felt like a big loss, but DeMeco Ryan has made that transition smoother than anyone would have thought as they remain one of the best units in the league. They face a tough challenge in Sean McVay and a Rams offence that prides themselves on that side of the ball, but San Fran will be confident to shut them down.
Los Angeles Rams
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average takes into account the quality of offensive opponents.
People talk about Super Bowl hangovers. Though it can be pushed to the side as a myth, we’re still waiting to see this Rams side perform to those levels of last year.
With the trade of Matthew Stafford last season, they were made the instant favourites for the Super Bowl. They hit the ground running and finished strong. This season has been different, with both sides of the ball looking off the pace to what we expect. Losing some key pieces in Andrew Whitworth, Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr at the time didn’t seem too bad, but three weeks in, it’s looking more severe than expected.
Now early reports in pre-season lead us to believe that Matt Stafford had an elbow injury on his throwing arm. This has been played down and the Rams insist the situation has been blown out of proportion. But hearing problems on a quarterback’s throwing arm is never good news, no matter how serious it is.
Seeing Stafford’s disappointing start to the season makes the situation even more credible. Is the quarterback just going through a rough patch trying to get used to some new weapons? Or are the Rams hiding something about this injury? Only time will tell.
In the regular season the 49ers were able to get a double over the Rams, with a big win in week 18 that allowed them to make the playoffs. However, these two teams met again in the playoffs, with the LA team going on to win the Super Bowl.
Prediction
In a weird run of events both sides have had disappointing starts to the season. The Rams look like a ghost of themselves from last season on both sides of the ball, as we are still waiting for them to put a consistent four quarters together. Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are all performing to their superstars levels, but in a team game, it has not been enough.
While over in San Francisco, the dilemma of the quarterback situation has made for awkward tension around the team. Dropping a quarterback for a younger project is always going to be difficult for the player and team, but it’s never a great look when you then have to fall back on him two weeks into the season.
Although on paper this Rams side is more impressive and had the better start to the season, this 49ers defence is the best unit on the field. In what I think is going to be a fairly defensive game, where the 49ers really try to establish the run and dominate the time of possession, there are still going to be times Kupp and this Rams offence hits home runs. Though there’s no hiding this offence and Stafford has been sloppy and I expect the 49ers defence to take advantage of that and get themselves the home win.
Another Sunday in the books and another footballing feast for the eyes with terrific action and close encounters right across the National Football League.
With the exception of the late, late contest between the Chiefs and the Bucs, the other 14 matches all were one-score games during the fourth quarter. There was even a point during the early kick-offs where all nine matches were one-score games in the fourth quarter at the same point in time.
Where in the world would you find this level of competition in professional sport?
The answer is, of course, is nowhere but in the NFL. It is the reason why supporters of gridiron tune in week in, week out as the action continues to deliver the goods.
Let’s start with one of the most anticipated match-ups, when Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson went head-to-head.
Bills @ Ravens
By the beginning of the fourth quarter the game was tied 20-20, as this thoroughly entertaining contest was played out on soft ground and in heavy rain.
Both protagonists were to the fore.
Lamar Jackson helped the Ravens into an early lead when on his first drive, he took advantage of the short field, after an interception by Marlon Humphrey, and shuffle-passed the ball to JK Dobbins for the opening touchdown. He then found Devin Duvernay with a heads-up play for another six-pointer.
At the end of the first half, Josh Allen kicked into action and led a drive which ended when he threw to Isiah McKenzie for a touchdown with 13 seconds left to make it 10-20 at the break.
Allen was immense after half time and grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck. He finished off the opening drive by taking off on a scramble to the left sideline and stepping inside the oncoming defenders for a touchdown to level the scores.
The game remained 20-20 as Lamar fired to Devin Duvernay, who brought the play up to the one-yard line. Three plays later and the Bills defence stood firm.
Then came a surprising call by Ravens coach, John Harbaugh, who turned down the chance to take a three-point lead with the field goal and went for it on fourth down. Buffalo continued their goal-line stand as Baltimore’s 14-play drive ended with no points. Jackson’s next drive also ended in disappointment when Jordan Poyer got his second interception of the game with four minutes remaining.
Allen once again took centre stage and led his team down the field with superb quarterback play.
By the time the Bills were on the three-yard line, they had worked the clock down to three seconds remaining when Tyler Bass kicked them to victory with a field goal.
This was a terrific contest decided by small margins with great performances across both teams. It will be remembered as the biggest comeback victory of Josh Allen’s career to date as the Bills came from 3-20 down to win 23-20.
It looked at the time to be the best quarterbacking performance of the weekend, but not to be undone, Patrick Mahommes reminded everyone what a superstar he is with a sensational performance in a packed Raymond James Stadium in the late kick off.
Unstoppable
In doing so he gained a margin of revenge for the loss in Superbowl 55 as he tore the Bucs defence to pieces.
He started the game with touchdowns on his first three drives. On the night, he was just electric with a performance littered with jaw-dropping plays. Throughout Mahommes displayed his natural ingenuity with ball-in-hand on a level that most players could only dream of.
In my opinion, Mahommes showed a growing maturity and progression with his game management by leaning on all of his receiving core, which made the Chiefs attack unpredictable throughout. Tom Brady did well to keep the score a respectable 41-31.
It also finally put to bed for me that Kansas might struggle without the Cheetah, Tyreek Hill. If they can do this to the Bucs defence, then every other defensive coordinator on their schedule better sit up and take notice.
It’s only Week 4 and already I’m finding it hard to contain myself with the prospect of these three quarterbacks, Allen, Jackson and Mahommes, duking it out for supremacy in the AFC when knockout football returns in January.
Young Guns Part 1
Kenny Pickett and Bailey Zappe enter the fray in Week 4
One of the most interesting happenings of Week 4 was the somewhat unexpected introduction to two rookie quarterbacks during two tightly-contested fixtures.
Jets @ Steelers
Pittsburgh trailed 10-6 at home to the New York Jets, after Braxton Barrios found his QB Zach Wilson with a ‘Philly-Special.’
It led Steelers coach Mike Tomlin to make a quarterback change at half time when he benched Mitch Trubisky for his first-round draft pick Kenny Pickett much to the delight of the home crowd. After three runs and a quarterback sneak to pick up the first down the crowd began chanting ‘Kenny!!!, Kenny!!!’
Pickett’s first pass down in the NFL resulted in an interception. However, the home crowd were not going to be deterred and a few plays later safety Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepted back to bring the play down near the goal line.
From there Pickett ran it in and the “Kenny, Kenny” chants erupted once again. He followed this up with another rushing TD in the fourth quarter as the Steelers turned the game around with a 10-20 lead.
With less than eight minutes left, Jets QB Zach Wilson, in his first appearance of the year, showed what a young talent he is as he led a comeback effort. He fired to Corey Davies to make it 17-20. After a late drive, he fed another rookie, running-back Breece Hall, for the winning score with only 16 seconds left.
The action wasn’t over. With four points between the teams, Pickett had one last chance for a Hail Mary and as his delivery sailed into the endzone, safety Lamarcus Joyner grabbed an interception to finish the contest.
Young Guns Part 2
Patriots @ Packers
What was expected to be a defensive spectacle ended up being a very entertaining contest, which took on a new dimension in the first quarter after Patriots back-up QB Brian Hoyer got a head injury.
It resulted in an early introduction for the Pats third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe, a fourth-round pick from Western Kentucky, to make a highly unexpected NFL debut.
It was another rookie Christian Watson who ran in his first NFL TD when he took a pop-pass from Aaron Rodgers in motion.
The Pats played physical smash-mouth football which kept Rodgers on the sideline and by the time he retook the field in the last minute of the second quarter, he had only thrown for 38 yards. Two plays later and Rodgers threw a pick-six, his second ever of his career at Lambeau Field. It left the Packers trailing 10-7 at the break.
In the second half, the teams went blow for blow. First Rodgers fired to his tight-end Robert Tonyan for a TD and the following run-heavy drive from New England ended with Zappe finding DeVante Parker on play-action for the first passing touchdown of his career.
The sides swapped scores again in the fourth quarter when a Damien Harris score was replied to when Rodgers found rookie Romeo Doubs for the 500th TD of his career. The game finished tied and in overtime Rodgers led his team down the field for Mason Crosby to kick the winner from 31 yards with four seconds left.
As unlikely as events unfolded to give Zappe his first starts, something more unlikely happened in the New York Giants victory over Chicago. Daniel Jones had to leave the field with an injury and then his replacement Tyrod Taylor also had to exit with an ankle injury.
With no other QB on the playing roster, it left star-of-the-show Saquon Barkley to go under centre as a wildcat QB and he led the Giants down the field in the fourth quarter for the insurance field goal in a 12-20 win over the Bears.
London Calling
The Minnesota Vikings won an excellent contest in the early kickoff in London against a New Orleans team that showed grit and determination to stay in the contest throughout and then took a lead late in the fourth quarter.
Justin Jefferson was the star of the contest with 147 receiving yards on the day and when he rushed in from three yards, London got to see his ‘Griddy’ touchdown celebration to help the Vikings regain the lead in fourth quarter.
Saints kicker Will Lutz in particular had an afternoon to remember when his 60-yard kick went between the posts to tie the game with two minutes remaining. Fast forward to the last play of the game and Lutz was in a similar position with another long-range attempt to bring the contest to overtime.,
However, this time his effort hit the post and then the crossbar for a ‘double-doink’ that secured victory for the Vikes.
If there is a more improved player in the NFL than Jalen Hurts, I haven’t seen him.
Trailing 0-14 on the road away to Jacksonville, he displayed courage and leadership to lead his team to a deserved win. The Eagles offence that is just rolling at the moment.
A coach that definitely doesn’t get the respect he is due in my opinion is Nick Siriani, who deserves credit for building the offence around Hurts in a similar way to how Baltimore has built around the talent of Lamar Jackson.
Helped by a superb offensive line they run opinion plays and play action to great effect and he schemes Hurts to where he is most dangerous: outside the pocket. It will be interesting if he meets a defence that can contain him, but so far he has hurdled all the obstacles put before him.
The Eagles are the only team to go 4-0 and with running-back Miles Sanders running impressively for 156 yards and two touchdowns on the day.
Slightly more impressively, Rashaad Penny ran for 157 yards and two touchdowns in what, so far, is the highest scoring game of the season as the Seahawks beat the Detroit Lions 48-45.
Seattle led for most of the contest but the Detroit Lions would not give up the ghost.
Tight-end TJ Hockenson had eight receptions for 179 yards and two TDs in a game where both quarterbacks Geno Smith and Jared Goff balled out for their respective sides. Jamaal Williams also continued to show that he can walk-the-walk as good as he can talk-the-talk, when he ran in for a 51-yard TD, his second score of the game.
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo proved his worth once again as his late effort was the difference in a tightly-fought 20-23 contest with the Cleveland Browns.
Kyler Murray got his second win of the campaign when he took down the Carolina Panthers 26-16. Murray came alive in the second half and was the best player on show. He was run close in that regard by teammate Zach Allen, who on the day batted three Baker Mayfield throws and recorded a sack and his performance drew comparisons with swat-machine JJ Watt.
In the NFC East, Cooper Rush continued to win as quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys as they beat their divisional opponents the Washington Commanders, wearing their new black uniforms for the first time.
Derek Henry looked back near his best as the Titans had a 24-17 road win against the Colts, while Austin Ekeler was to the fore scoring three touchdowns as the LA Chargers took the honours away to the Houston Texans.
Finally, Josh McDaniels got his first win as head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders in an entertaining 23-32 contest at home to the Denver Broncos. Running-back Josh Jacobs was key to the victory with 175 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns.
Phew!!!
Another few hours to catch my breath until the week rounds off with an NFC West match-up as the San Francisco 49ers take on their neighboring rival LA Rams.
Another Sunday in the books and another footballing feast for the eyes with terrific action and close encounters right across the National Football League.
With the exception of the late, late contest between the Chiefs and the Bucs, the other 14 matches all were one-score games during the fourth quarter. There was even a point during the early kick-offs where all nine matches were one-score games in the fourth quarter at the same point in time.
Where in the world would you find this level of competition in professional sport?
The answer is, of course, is nowhere but in the NFL. It is the reason why supporters of gridiron tune in week in, week out as the action continues to deliver the goods.
Let’s start with one of the most anticipated match-ups, when Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson went head-to-head.
Bills @ Ravens
By the beginning of the fourth quarter the game was tied 20-20, as this thoroughly entertaining contest was played out on soft ground and in heavy rain.
Both protagonists were to the fore.
Lamar Jackson helped the Ravens into an early lead when on his first drive, he took advantage of the short field, after an interception by Marlon Humphrey, and shuffle-passed the ball to JK Dobbins for the opening touchdown. He then found Devin Duvernay with a heads-up play for another six-pointer.
At the end of the first half, Josh Allen kicked into action and led a drive which ended when he threw to Isiah McKenzie for a touchdown with 13 seconds left to make it 10-20 at the break.
Allen was immense after half time and grabbed the game by the scruff of the neck. He finished off the opening drive by taking off on a scramble to the left sideline and stepping inside the oncoming defenders for a touchdown to level the scores.
The game remained 20-20 as Lamar fired to Devin Duvernay, who brought the play up to the one-yard line. Three plays later and the Bills defence stood firm.
Then came a surprising call by Ravens coach, John Harbaugh, who turned down the chance to take a three-point lead with the field goal and went for it on fourth down. Buffalo continued their goal-line stand as Baltimore’s 14-play drive ended with no points. Jackson’s next drive also ended in disappointment when Jordan Poyer got his second interception of the game with four minutes remaining.
Allen once again took centre stage and led his team down the field with superb quarterback play.
By the time the Bills were on the three-yard line, they had worked the clock down to three seconds remaining when Tyler Bass kicked them to victory with a field goal.
This was a terrific contest decided by small margins with great performances across both teams. It will be remembered as the biggest comeback victory of Josh Allen’s career to date as the Bills came from 3-20 down to win 23-20.
It looked at the time to be the best quarterbacking performance of the weekend, but not to be undone, Patrick Mahommes reminded everyone what a superstar he is with a sensational performance in a packed Raymond James Stadium in the late kick off.
In doing so he gained a margin of revenge for the loss in Superbowl 55 as he tore the Bucs defence to pieces.
He started the game with touchdowns on his first three drives. On the night, he was just electric with a performance littered with jaw-dropping plays. Throughout Mahommes displayed his natural ingenuity with ball-in-hand on a level that most players could only dream of.
In my opinion, Mahommes showed a growing maturity and progression with his game management by leaning on all of his receiving core, which made the Chiefs attack unpredictable throughout. Tom Brady did well to keep the score a respectable 41-31.
It also finally put to bed for me that Kansas might struggle without the Cheetah, Tyreek Hill. If they can do this to the Bucs defence, then every other defensive coordinator on their schedule better sit up and take notice.
It’s only Week 4 and already I’m finding it hard to contain myself with the prospect of these three quarterbacks, Allen, Jackson and Mahommes, duking it out for supremacy in the AFC when knockout football returns in January.
Young Guns Part 1
Kenny Pickett and Bailey Zappe enter the fray in Week 4
One of the most interesting happenings of Week 4 was the somewhat unexpected introduction to two rookie quarterbacks during two tightly-contested fixtures.
Jets @ Steelers
Pittsburgh trailed 10-6 at home to the New York Jets, after Braxton Barrios found his QB Zach Wilson with a ‘Philly-Special.’
It led Steelers coach Mike Tomlin to make a quarterback change at half time when he benched Mitch Trubisky for his first-round draft pick Kenny Pickett much to the delight of the home crowd. After three runs and a quarterback sneak to pick up the first down the crowd began chanting ‘Kenny!!!, Kenny!!!’
Pickett’s first pass down in the NFL resulted in an interception. However, the home crowd were not going to be deterred and a few plays later safety Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepted back to bring the play down near the goal line.
From there Pickett ran it in and the “Kenny, Kenny” chants erupted once again. He followed this up with another rushing TD in the fourth quarter as the Steelers turned the game around with a 10-20 lead.
With less than eight minutes left, Jets QB Zach Wilson, in his first appearance of the year, showed what a young talent he is as he led a comeback effort. He fired to Corey Davies to make it 17-20. After a late drive, he fed another rookie, running-back Breece Hall, for the winning score with only 16 seconds left.
The action wasn’t over. With four points between the teams, Pickett had one last chance for a Hail Mary and as his delivery sailed into the endzone, safety Lamarcus Joyner grabbed an interception to finish the contest.
Young Guns Part 2
Patriots @ Packers
What was expected to be a defensive spectacle ended up being a very entertaining contest, which took on a new dimension in the first quarter after Patriots back-up QB Brian Hoyer got a head injury.
It resulted in an early introduction for the Pats third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe, a fourth-round pick from Western Kentucky, to make a highly unexpected NFL debut.
It was another rookie Christian Watson who ran in his first NFL TD when he took a pop-pass from Aaron Rodgers in motion.
The Pats played physical smash-mouth football which kept Rodgers on the sideline and by the time he retook the field in the last minute of the second quarter, he had only thrown for 38 yards. Two plays later and Rodgers threw a pick-six, his second ever of his career at Lambeau Field. It left the Packers trailing 10-7 at the break.
In the second half, the teams went blow for blow. First Rodgers fired to his tight-end Robert Tonyan for a TD and the following run-heavy drive from New England ended with Zappe finding DeVante Parker on play-action for the first passing touchdown of his career.
The sides swapped scores again in the fourth quarter when a Damien Harris score was replied to when Rodgers found rookie Romeo Doubs for the 500th TD of his career. The game finished tied and in overtime Rodgers led his team down the field for Mason Crosby to kick the winner from 31 yards with four seconds left.
As unlikely as events unfolded to give Zappe his first starts, something more unlikely happened in the New York Giants victory over Chicago. Daniel Jones had to leave the field with an injury and then his replacement Tyrod Taylor also had to exit with an ankle injury.
With no other QB on the playing roster, it left star-of-the-show Saquon Barkley to go under centre as a wildcat QB and he led the Giants down the field in the fourth quarter for the insurance field goal in a 12-20 win over the Bears.
London Calling
The Minnesota Vikings won an excellent contest in the early kickoff in London against a New Orleans team that showed grit and determination to stay in the contest throughout and then took a lead late in the fourth quarter.
Justin Jefferson was the star of the contest with 147 receiving yards on the day and when he rushed in from three yards, London got to see his ‘Griddy’ touchdown celebration to help the Vikings regain the lead in fourth quarter.
Saints kicker Will Lutz in particular had an afternoon to remember when his 60-yard kick went between the posts to tie the game with two minutes remaining. Fast forward to the last play of the game and Lutz was in a similar position with another long-range attempt to bring the contest to overtime.,
However, this time his effort hit the post and then the crossbar for a ‘double-doink’ that secured victory for the Vikes.
If there is a more improved player in the NFL than Jalen Hurts, I haven’t seen him.
Trailing 0-14 on the road away to Jacksonville, he displayed courage and leadership to lead his team to a deserved win. The Eagles offence that is just rolling at the moment.
A coach that definitely doesn’t get the respect he is due in my opinion is Nick Siriani, who deserves credit for building the offence around Hurts in a similar way to how Baltimore has built around the talent of Lamar Jackson.
Helped by a superb offensive line they run opinion plays and play action to great effect and he schemes Hurts to where he is most dangerous: outside the pocket. It will be interesting if he meets a defence that can contain him, but so far he has hurdled all the obstacles put before him.
The Eagles are the only team to go 4-0 and with running-back Miles Sanders running impressively for 156 yards and two touchdowns on the day.
Slightly more impressively, Rashaad Penny ran for 157 yards and two touchdowns in what, so far, is the highest scoring game of the season as the Seahawks beat the Detroit Lions 48-45.
Seattle led for most of the contest but the Detroit Lions would not give up the ghost.
Tight-end TJ Hockenson had eight receptions for 179 yards and two TDs in a game where both quarterbacks Geno Smith and Jared Goff balled out for their respective sides. Jamaal Williams also continued to show that he can walk-the-walk as good as he can talk-the-talk, when he ran in for a 51-yard TD, his second score of the game.
Atlanta Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo proved his worth once again as his late effort was the difference in a tightly-fought 20-23 contest with the Cleveland Browns.
Kyler Murray got his second win of the campaign when he took down the Carolina Panthers 26-16. Murray came alive in the second half and was the best player on show. He was run close in that regard by teammate Zach Allen, who on the day batted three Baker Mayfield throws and recorded a sack and his performance drew comparisons with swat-machine JJ Watt.
In the NFC East, Cooper Rush continued to win as quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys as they beat their divisional opponents the Washington Commanders, wearing their new black uniforms for the first time.
Derek Henry looked back near his best as the Titans had a 24-17 road win against the Colts, while Austin Ekeler was to the fore scoring three touchdowns as the LA Chargers took the honours away to the Houston Texans.
Finally, Josh McDaniels got his first win as head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders in an entertaining 23-32 contest at home to the Denver Broncos. Running-back Josh Jacobs was key to the victory with 175 yards from scrimmage and a pair of touchdowns.
Phew!!!
Another few hours to catch my breath until the week rounds off with an NFC West match-up as the San Francisco 49ers take on their neighboring rival LA Rams.
This is a game I am really looking forward to as the two best teams on form in the NFL this season clash in Week 4.
Interestingly what these sides have in common is that they both lost epic battles to the Miami Dolphins in the last fortnight
Although still early, this will also be a battle for a lead in the race for post-season home-field advantage as I expect, barring injury, both teams will still be playing football in January and this fixture potentially the AFC Championship match-up later in this season.
They say a week is a long time in politics and that is certainly the case in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion on Thursday Night Football shows how a team’s plight can change in one play and both the Ravens and Bills chances of Superbowl success would go up in smoke if either of their quarterbacks were to pick up a significant injury. Then again, that would be true for every Superbowl contender, so let’s not dwell on such hypotheticals.
There has been some fun in the run-up to this game.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen began the week buttering up his opponents, while also highlighting the potential mine in the Ravens’ building. As has been widely reported, Lamar Jackson has yet to come to an agreement with the Baltimore franchise over a long-term contract extension that has been parked by both sides until the off-season.
Allen said that Jackson “should be the highest paid player in the league” with the way he is currently playing, and this was then put to Jackson in a televised interview.
I’m not sure those holding the purse strings in Baltimore would have appreciated it, but the sentiments are hard to argue with. Jackson has been amazing this season.
That he has done most of his damage on the field with his arms rather than his legs has shown the progression he has made as a quarterback and the less punishment his body takes throughout the regular season could pay dividends in the postseason, as he is the most electric QB running with the ball the game has ever seen.
He is now in the prime of his career and is a better quarterback than when he won the league MVP in 2019.
His opponent on Sunday, Allen is also a leading candidate for Super Bowl and MVP honours this season and the Bills are currently the bookies favourites for the title. They are not without their faults, as their secondary was exposed by Jaylen Waddle at times last weekend and surprisingly their offensive line had their hands full when Miami rushed four men throughout the second half last week and routinely got the Bills attack off the field on third down.
I expect last week’s defeat to the Dolphins to be a blessing in disguise as it gives Buffalo lessons to learn from, while also helping them get their feet back on the ground, after expectations were threatening to get out of hand in upstate New York after their impressive start to the season.
I expect the Bills offence to get back to themselves this week against a Baltimore defence that has looked porous at times. On the back of that observation, I expect the Bills to emerge victorious on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arguably, the best match-up of the weekend is the late one on Sunday night when the Chiefs go head-to-head with the Buccaneers in a repeat of Super Bowl 55 in February, 2021.
That game too was in Raymond James stadium so let’s reminisce about that old battle before this next episode. On that night Tom Brady led his then new team convincingly to the title, after the Bucs defence made bits of the Chiefs offensive line and put quarterback Patrick Mahommes under the pump all night.
This time Mahommes returns with a much stronger offensive line, an All-Star cast including Pro-Bowlers Orlando Brown Jr, Joe Thuney and Creed Humphery. This group is up there with the best in the league and sets up a battle in the trenches that will be worth the entrance fee alone.
Whichever group emerges as dominant in this key battle should be a signpost of a team with serious credentials of competing for the Superbowl in Glendale, Arizona on the second Sunday in February.
The Bucs defensive line has been outstanding this season and they are, in my opinion, the best side in football at defending against the run, led by the man-mountain that is Vita Vea and teammates Akiem Hicks and William Gholston. They also possess the pass-rushing talent of Shaq Barrett.
What makes the Bucs defence particularly formidable is the supporting cast with linebackers Levontae David and Devin White, the latter of whom is catching the eye in every game and will likely be in the conversation as the best defensive player when the honours are handed out near the end of the season. Their secondary also is very strong and full of experience with Antonie Winfield Jr now one of the premier safeties in the game.
Last week when the need was greatest they managed to stifle Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offence on multiple drives throughout the second half, which gave Tom Brady a chance to bring the game to overtime.
Where the Bucs have struggled so far this season has been on offence.
Brady has the talent in the locker room but they have been plagued with injuries and suspensions to their best starting receiving core. Chris Godwin has yet to feature through injury and Julio Jones is also doubtful for Sunday. Mike Evans, however, will be back after serving his one game suspension for his altercation with Marshon Lattimore after the whistle in Week 2. Once fully fit, they will be a frightful proposition for anyone.
The Chiefs have also had their own struggles on offence, which only became apparent to me last week during their surprise loss against the Colts.
Of course everyone knew they would miss the speed of Tyreek Hill but his loss has had a few knock-on effects. For one, it has narrowed the playing field somewhat for Mahomes with less options farther down the field. Also it has resulted in his favourite target Travis Kelce getting effectively double-teamed on almost every play of the game.
It means that they will need to find a different way to win.
It is no wonder that Mahomes is getting frustrated in the pocket as was seen with his sideline argument with offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy at halftime last week.
This weekend, they are unlikely to get much change from their rushing attack out of a mammoth Bucs defensive line. Also the Kansas’ running game lacks the type of bruising running back that will get you that first down through force and strength of will. I am a fan of running-back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and his versatility but his quick-stepping and good hands sees him play in a ‘third-down back’ role on all three downs. In my opinion, they could do with some brute force in their running game to make them less predictable.
It is not all doom and gloom. The arrival of Juju Smith-Schuster in the slot gives him another strong option on third down and in the endzone and certainly, when Mahommes gets time in the pocket he has the skill-set and ability to disact any defence. For me, he is the best quarterback plying his trade in the NFL.
A few days ago, it was looking like this game was going to be moved to Minnesota due to the storms in Miami. Luckily for gridiron fans across the globe, Hurricane Ian managed to bypass the stadium in Tampa Bay and we can expect it to be full on Sunday night with what promises to be an enthralling contest.
This game is so close, many of the bookies don’t even have a favourite for this contest, which doesn’t happen often in sports.The Bucs defence swings it for me and I’ll swing for a home win.
Minnesota Vikings v New Orleans Saints
I’ll move quickly through the first match-up of the year in London.
The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium looks an excellent venue for American Football and provides an atmosphere that you don’t get at Wembley as the fans are that bit closer to the action.
The London games are historically difficult to predict, but I’m going to side with Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings in this one. They are coming off a late win against Detroit last week and Kirk Cousins should be comfortable in London. He has been over to the UK many times and he has the weapons to put on a show for a crowd that will get behind the team that can make big plays. The Vikings have a good defence and look to have one of the more balanced rosters in football.
However, the main reason why I’m picking the Vikings is the uncertainty at quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. Just when he seemed to have turned the corners, quarterback Jameis Winston has turned back around again into a turnover machine, throwing five interceptions the last two weeks, which proved costly to the Saints in both games.
He is doubtful coming for this game with back and ankle injuries, with Andy Dalton a safer pair of hands, waiting for his chance on the sideline. Even if Winston starts and he continues to turn the ball over, it won’t be long until we see Dalton on the field anyways.
Additionally, their offensive line is missing the presence at left tackle of Terron Armstead, since he left for Miami Dolphins in the off-season and I think this also impacted on the productivity of their ground game with Alvin Kamara playing banged-up through the first three weeks.
All indicators point to a Vikings win but as i said before, London games have a history of taking on a mind of their own.
New England Patriots v Green Bay Packers
Historically, this is a match-up that would usually take top-billing match-up as Aaron Rodgers and the Packer faithful welcome the Patriots to Lambeau Field.
If the opening three weeks is anything to go by, it is likely to be a borefest or let’s say, one of the purists. These are two excellent defences coming up against two sides who again are struggling on offence.
Green Bay is still feeling the loss of wide-out Devontae Adams and Rodgers has not gelled yet with his new receiving core. There were some green shoots in the first half last week when he started to build up a repore with rookie Romeo Dobbs but in the second half in Tampa Bay, the Packers could not extend drives which nearly cost them the game.
This week, these struggles could continue as they face the greatest defensive mind in the history of the game in Bill Belichick. He is likely to frustrate the Packer offence once again and it will be interesting if Rodgers and head-coach Matt LeFleur can game plan their way around this.
If they can, it could be a turning point in their season as their defence has been very impressive in the opening few weeks.
I expect the Green Bay defence to stifle what will be a Brian Hoyer led offence after Mac Jones was ruled out yesterday. The Patriots will put the ball in the hands of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris and try to wear this Packer defence down. The Pats have become very one-dimensional on offence this season since the loss of offensive guru Josh McDaniels and are badly crying out for a blue-chip playmaker on the outside.
With Green Bay having the huge advantage at quarterback, it should be three wins in a row for the Cheeseheads but it will be the manner of their victory that will be more telling of what the season could hold in store for them.
Denver Broncos v Las Vegas Raiders
An AFC West division match-up between two sides that have looked better on paper than they have on the field.
Russell Wilson has yet to click with what should be a high-powered offence but he is coming off two wins in a row. Rome wasn’t built in a day and there were bound to be growing pains for a quarterback in a new scheme with new teammates. I will not overreact to my concerns over this team just yet and give the Broncos the benefit of the doubt for now.
They face a Raiders side that is in danger of starting the season 0-4 and a loss on Sunday will see them soon to be preparing for next season. Maxx Crosby has lived up to the hype on defence but he needs a few of his teammates to step up and help him out. While on offence Derek Carr needs to start balling out and get the pigskin into the hands of the highly talented play-makers at his disposal.
Head coach Josh McDaniels must be disappointed with their run game in particular. They are putting the ball in the hands of their running backs but their rushing attack has been limited so far leaving Carr with more third and long opportunities than he would like. It is also stifling their play-action attack.
When the need is greatest, a team will either come together or crumble. The need is very great in Las Vegas right now. Desperation might be their biggest asset on Sunday, but I wouldn’t be anyway confident the Raiders will get the job done. It should be a good game to watch with the Broncos for me taking the win.
The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Dolphins 27-15 to end Miami’s undefeated start to the 2022 season.
After an electric opening, this turned out to be a sombre edition of Thursday Night Football, after a nasty looking head and neck injuries suffered by Tua Tagovailoa. A play in the second quarter resulted in him having to be stretchered off the field and taken to hospital for further checks that concerned many for the health of the 24-year-old.
We were told that Tua was awake and moving again before the game finished but it calls into question whether the concussion protocols were followed correctly last Sunday after his stumble against the Bills suggested he suffered a head injury before retook the field in the second half.
The professional game is supposed to better understand the dangers of second-concussion syndrome, which can lead to serious brain injury and even death. Prayers were offered across the league on social media and in the stadium as he was carted off after his head heavily collided with the ground in a tackle.
For now, back to the action.
First half
With the NFL relaxing rules on alternate helmets being allowed, the Bengals rocked the long awaited white-alternate helmets for the first time and the Queen City held a white-out. I’m a sucker for new uniform combinations and boy does this all-white combination look clean?
More importantly, the Bengals opening drive was as clean as their new helmets. Burrow was all business, looking crisp and decisive, getting the ball out of his hands quickly with shots to Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and a couple to tight-end Hayden Hurst. Two defensive penalties by the Dolphins advanced Cincinnati to the nine-yard line, where Joe Mixon with help from a big push and surge from the Bengals O-Line opened his scoring account for 2022. Evan McPherson’s PAT was good.
The Dolphins offence replied with a strong drive of their own.
Tagovailoa kept up his hot start to the year, zipping passes of 20 yards and over to his elite receiver pair of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, eventually driving to the Cincinnati five. Tua then lofted a beautiful pass to the back of the endzone into the hands of RB Chase Edmonds on third and four, only for it to slip out of Edmonds hands. The Dolphins instead settled for a field-goal and Jason Sanders duly obliged.
A quick stop by the Miami D and the Dolphins soon had the ball back on their own 13. Tua fired a beautiful shot to Mike Gesicki for 28 yards and Raheem Mostert broke into a 21-yard rush as the Dolphins started getting into a groove, until an unnecessary deep heave into double coverage from Tua to Hill resulted in an interception by Cincinnati cornerback Von Bell.
The Bengals looked set to take advantage of the turnover, pounding the rock with Mixon and some smart rushing by Burrow leading them near the Dolphins red-zone. The Dolphins D held strong and forced the Bengals into making a decision on whether to go for it on fourth and one.
If you remember anything about the Bengals magical run of 2021, head-coach Zac Taylor was never afraid to put his trust in his offence on 4th downs and last night was no different. The Bengals handed it off to Mixon but the Dolphins denied him the yard he needed for a turnover on downs. The Dolphins added another three points after a 48-yard field-goal attempt from Sanders.
The Bengals were forced to punt away after a quick three and out, and then disaster struck.
Tagovailoa dropped back and was rolling left before getting caught and slammed in a twisting way to the floor by DT Josh Tupou. It led to some unsettling shots of Tua, clearly out of consciousness, arms stretched out with his fingers appearing in an unnatural position. It was a scary situation to witness and Tua was down on the field for over seven minutes as both teams took to the field clearly concerned for the well-being of the Dolphins quarterback.
Eventually Tua was stretchered away and taken to the hospital with head and neck injuries.
In came experienced journeyman Teddy Bridgewater, but with the wind truly knocked from their sails, the Dolphins drive stalled and Sanders 52-yard field-goal attempt was blocked by Bengals rookie DT Jeffrey Gunter.
The Bengals explosive and big play ability shined as they extended their lead to 3-14 as Burrow fired a shot to Tee Higgins who proceeded to take it to the house for a 59 yard score. PAT good.
Teddy Bridgewater led the Dolphins on a solid two-minute drive to end the half, eventually finding Chase Edmonds for a nine-yard score with 15 seconds to go in the half. But in what seems like a ritual for TNF, Sanders missed the PAT for a scoreline of 12-14 at the half.
Neither opening drives of the second half led to scores as the defence began to control the affair, until Bridgewater hit a deep shot which bounced into the hands of Tyreek Hill for a gain of 64 yards and set up the Dolphins on the Bengals five-yard line. Miami couldn’t find the endzone though, settling for a one-point lead after another FG from Sanders.
The Bengals weren’t behind for long, as McPherson’s 19-yard chip shot took them back in front with 12 minutes to go in the fourth. This was followed by a quick three and out for the Dolphins offence, which was followed by an impressive 57-yard attempt by McPherson to extend the Bengals lead.
A pretty torrid night for the Dolphins got worse as Von Bell struck again for a pick off a pretty poor throw from Bridgewater. It ended a gutsy drive and even gutsier second half performance from the Miami defence. Burrow and the Bengals took full advantage of the good field positioning, ending when Burrow fired a 2-yard pass into the hands of Hayden Hurst for a 15-27 final score.
The reigning AFC Champion Bengals get back to 500 with a 2-2 record after an impressive performance in front of a national audience.
Joe Burrow was born for nights like these and while the Cincinnati offence is still suffering growing pains, the offensive line gave a much improved effort from what we have seen from Week 1 through 3. They allowed only one sack all night. I don’t think I was ever concerned about the fate of the Bengals after the rocky 0-2 start. This Bengals team has imperfections but so did the 2021 Bengals. They aren’t going to win 13 or 14 games, but they are going to be in contention come the playoffs and Burrow tends to get better as the season goes on. His starting receiving core is still the deadliest in the league. They could do with getting more production out of Joe Mixon. After four games, Mixon is averaging a terrible 2.5 yards per attempt.
Also of note, Von Bell doubled his career interception total tonight and might just have got himself the game ball from Zac Taylor for his efforts. The Bengals now prepare themselves for a huge Sunday Night Football matchup with currently the biggest threats to their AFC North crown: The Baltimore Ravens. I cannot wait for this game!
This was a tough night for Miami. Losing a game to the reigning AFC champs on a short week, where they had to leave for Cincinnati earlier than expected due to a quicker than originally forecasted arrival of Hurricane Ian in Florida this week. A hilarious name for a hurricane but I’ll try to remember the impact a natural disaster can have on the lives of the people affected by it.
It ended their undefeated start to 2022 but this might be for the best, as the loss allows the Dolphins to keep themselves grounded and get back to the grind before their Week 5 tilt with AFC East rivals: New York Jets.
What will really hurt though, is the potential loss of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and how it happened is a gut punch that will test the metal of rookie head-coach Mike McDaniel, who thus far has delivered beyond expectations in his first season in Miami.
For Tua, he really has taken a step forward this year and while he needs to be more accurate and cut out the interceptions on deep shots, he is playing with confidence and poise. It would be a heart-wrenching turn of events if, just as he is starting to understand how to be a productive NFL quarterback, it is ripped away by injury.
The Dolphins will have further questions to answer regarding their handling of the suspected Week 3 head injury that was reported as back injury by their medical team. Were they right to play Tua this week? I’m not qualified and am in no way connected to the team to answer that question, but I hope the people who are in this position can get the answers needed.
For now, let’s wish Tua a speedy recovery and continued health.
In the highly anticipated debut of the Bengals new alternative uniforms, they are white and black, supposedly to represent a white tiger, they have to welcome one of the two remaining undefeated teams: the Miami Dolphins. On what on paper is a top-10 defence versus a top-10 offence, it is sure to be a show of fireworks at the Paycor Stadium.
Cincinnati Bengals
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average are adjusted to take into account the quality of offensive opponents.
Some might call him “Joey Amazing”, “Joey Ice” or “Joey Brrrrr” but when asked the question last year at the Super Bowl media, Joe Burrows simply prefers to go by Joe.
Last year the former first overall pick in 2020 showed why he deserved that status, when he took the Cincinnati Bengals to their first ever Super Bowl appearance in many years.
Granted they would ultimately fall to the Los Angeles Rams, but there was no shame in what that team accomplished after the turnaround they have had in just a couple of years since his arrival.
That meant going into this year, expectations were going to be higher and teams knew what they were coming up against. Well, through the first two weeks that seemed to be a problem, as they had disappointing losses to the Steelers and Cowboys.
The strong, aggressive defence that we saw last year remains and looks to be itself, but the explosive offence that they were known for faded the first couple of weeks. They would start games slow and not attack the ball downfield, like we had seen through the whole of last year with Burrows routinely finding Jamar Chase.
Last week against the Jets, they looked like their old selves again. Burrows had 56 and 44 yard touchdowns to Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Granted it was against a weak New York Jets side, but we got to see that the Bengals are still capable of the show they put on for us last year and they’re not the scared timid side of Week 1 and Week 2.
Bengals Injury Report
Miami Dolphins
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
This Miami side are on the highest of highs after a amazing coverback win from behind against Lamar Jackson in Week 2, that they then followed up by taking on an MVP candidate in quarterback Josh Allen in a sluggish, but gritty win. Right now this Miami defence is explosive, even more than we could have imagined when Mike McDaniels took over earlier in the year.
Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle are the best receiving duo in the league so far. They have lighting speed to take the top off the defence, and they strike fear the moment they step on. Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds from the running back position are both offering more than expected in the rush and pass attack as well. While the main man Tua Tagovailoa is looking like the old Alabama prodigy after finding all these weapons everywhere.
With the health of Tua in question for this prime time event, they meet no pushovers on defence. While statistically the Bills last week looked a meaner matchup for this high octane offence, they were missing a few key pieces. Now they have to face the Tigers in their jungle, who were a key reason the Bengals reached the summit of NFL games last year. Coming off a short week is never easy, especially when your starting quarterback status is in question.
Dolphins Injury Report
Prediction
Even with the Bengals performances so far, this game looks to be an absolute cracker. Both offences have the potential to hit each other with big blows with what they possess. There are great weapons all over and the matchup between the Cincinnati’s’ defence and Miami’s offence will be a must see. If Tua is healthy come game time, we will have a back and forth shootout on our hands.
I’ve been impressed with the Bengals defence so far and think on the defensive line in particular, they will cause problems for a Miami offensive line, which is still getting used to one another.
While on paper with what we’ve seen so far, this Dolphins side has been more impressive, holding an undefeated record even while facing the Bills and Ravens. But with the Hurricane events going on right now in Florida, it’s easy to forget these players are people too and the preparation towards this game will have been different. Along with the uncertainty of Tua, I think there are sides that point towards the home side edging it on prime time.
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