By David McDonnell
It’s no great surprise to me that the AFC Championship game has come down once again to the Bengals versus the Chiefs. (kickoff 11.30 pm GMT)
There are plenty of good teams in the AFC but what separates these two from the rest of the pretenders is their quarterbacks, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. Both have the ability to throw the ball accurately and consistently beat the opposition from the pocket when the pressure is greatest, which is where Josh Allen came unstuck last weekend in my opinion.
I cannot wait for this game to begin and I really can’t say with any authority which way this game will go, but I’ll give it a try all the same.
The Bengals certainly caught the Bills defence off guard last weekend with their ability to run the ball, while down three of their starting linemen and the front office in Cincinnati deserve recognition for their forward thinking in reinforcing their O-Line with talent in addition to the number of costly acquisitions during the off-season.
The Bills defence struggled all day trying to stop Joe Mixon and it gave Burrow the platform to dictate their offence. This worked especially well as the Bengals had gotten themselves into an early lead with two early touchdowns and they will intend for a similar approach this weekend. If this happens we could have a shootout on our hands.
However, fore-warned is fore-armed and I would expect the Chiefs defence to be ready to defend against the run and try to force the Bengals into longer third downs. Nick Bolton is a hard hitting linebacker in Kansas and it will be interesting if they can take him away from the box on early running downs by making him pick up a slot receiver or Hayden Hurst at tight-end.
Having a plan in one thing, but the difficulty with these Bengals is that they have an array of weapons to choose from if Burrow is given time in the pocket.
He has two outstanding receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and with it, the Bengals have a match-up advantage in both speed, height and athleticism on both sides of their attack. I expect Burrow will go to both at key stages, especially if and when the game is on the line in the fourth quarter.
If the Chiefs can’t get pressure on Burrow in the pocket, they are unlikely to win but with an average of 3.2 sacks per game, they are certainly equipped to do so.
With both their starting tackles, Jonah Williams and La’el Collins, in Cincinnati out, you would presume this pair of starters are better than the current incumbents at pass protection, so maybe Kansas City will be able to get pressure on Burrow on key third downs through Frank Clark, Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.
Chiefs offence v Bengals Defence
On the other side of the ball, I can see the Bengals defence operating very similarly to how they did against the Bills last week, where they had Mike Hilton playing spy to stop Josh Allen taking off on runs and picking up first downs on key plays and third downs. He was also very damaging in breaking down some of the Bills screen plays.
Similar to Buffalo, Kansas do not have a terrific running game because they haven’t needed one as Mahomes has been majestic at quarterback all season. He has undoubtedly been the best player in the NFL this season and I hope his leg sprain injury from last week has cleared up in the seven days.
He has the best tight end in the game in Travis Kelce at his disposal and it will be very interesting what plan Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo puts in place to stop Kelce, especially in the red zone, which should be his top priority going into this game. It was very noticeable to me that when Mahomes was carrying the injury last week, he seemed to overly indulge in getting the ball to Kelce in that second half.
Although the Kansas City QB has some excellent receiving options and a lot of speed, he does not have blue chip talents that Burrow enjoys with receivers who can win contested catches. Certainly, no one has the level of trust that he enjoys with Kelce and Cincinnati will do all they can to curb Kelce influence. Logan Wilson is a very smart linebacker and I presume this job will come under his responsibility.
Although Mahomes doesn’t have receivers that Burrow has at his disposal, he still has a lot of talent and speed and if he is afforded time in the pocket, he will be able to dissect any defence. This could be a big game for Juju Smith-Schuster who has been quiet of late.
There will be a lot of pressure on Sam Hubbard and especially Trey Hendrickson, their best pass rusher to put Mahomes under pressure. Although the Bengals have forced a turnover in every game this season, they are coming up against an excellent O-line at Kansas City as well.
This is a tough one to call and I expect a high scoring game that will go to the wire. It could very much be one of those where the quarterback who has the ball last, will have the chance to win the game.
If Mahomes is hindered by his injury anywhere close to how he was last week then I don’t see the Chiefs winning.
But my gut feeling is that the Chiefs are more likely able to provide Mahomes with a cleaner pocket than the visiting Bengals and if Mahomes is operating close to or at 100% capacity, then I’ll tip the balance in favour of a Kansas City victory.
Bengals 27-30 Chiefs
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