By David McDonnell
Throughout the week I have seen a good few people on this side of the pond posting about how they missed one of the biggest comebacks in playoff history last weekend when Jacksonville came from 27-0 down to pip the Chargers in the early hours of Sunday morning.
They all went to bed and with it a literal reminder of the saying ‘You Snooze, You Lose,’ especially when it comes to playoff football.
The thought had crossed my mind in that first half as it had been a game where everything that could go wrong for the Jags had gone wrong, most notably five first-half turnovers. Thankfully for those of us who resisted the call to dreamland, we were rewarded with a playoff comeback and collapse of epic proportions.
One that has already cost LAC offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi his job.
Here we are a week later and the AFC South champions travel to Arrowhead stadium tonight to play the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs at 9.30 pm (GMT).
In my opinion, the main reason why the Jaguars won that game was their defence. In the first half they kept the score to 27 points despite putting the Bolts in great field position and most significantly kept them off the scoreboard throughout the second half.
There is a lot of talent on this side of the ball, along with a number of positions that are likely to be upgraded in the off-season, but most encouragingly they have shown a warrior mindset on defence for a number of weeks.
I really like the safety pairing of Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins, while Tyson Campbell is emerging as a star at corner. Their run defence is decent and allows an average of 112.1 yards per game.
But if I am being critical, and I am, the Jags are not getting enough pressure consistently on opposing quarterbacks. The team has amassed 28 sacks all season, which puts them 25th out of all 32 NFL teams. The only playoff team with less sacks, surprisingly, is the Cincinnati Bengals.
It is true their best player on defence is outside-linebacker Josh Allen, and they possess the rookie first overall draft pick in Trevon Walker, who has flashed at times but so far this season they haven’t produced to their ability on a consistent basis. Not when the pair has the potential to be the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. That’s how I see it, although it should also be noted that they could do with more help from the interior linemen.
Their best chance of stopping the Chiefs in my opinion is applying pressure on Patrick Mahomes. If they cannot do this, then they will be in for a long day in Kansas City irrespective of what they produce on offence.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has stepped up his game in a major way and has good receiving options with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones both having excellent seasons. However, they are still lacking that blue-chip wideout that most of the other contenders all possess. I would argue the same could be said for the Chiefs.
With Kansas City ranked 20th in the NFL versus tight-ends, I’d expect Evan Engram to be the key target and their best option on third downs and in the red zone.
Another thing of note, right-tackle Jawaan Taylor got away with a number of fouls, much to the frustration of Joey Bosa, last weekend. Due to the focus on this throughout the media during the week, I suspect he’ll be pinged if or when he transgresses tonight.
Saying that I have been very impressed with the Jacksonville O-line this season and if they halt Chris Jones’s influence on proceedings, it could give them a great chance in keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field for stretches.
Mahomes
There is no doubt in my mind that Mahomes is the best player in the NFL and coming off his best season to date. If he gets the time, he will dissect every team he plays against and has the ability to beat you with his legs and land a knockout punch down the field on every play.
With a healthy and highly talented offensive line in front of him, I can’t see the Jags keeping him under 30 points and for the Jags to win, they will need to go toe-to-toe throughout the contest. I do believe the Florida side has a chance tonight as I am not convinced by the Chiefs defence this season so I can see the visitors scoring touchdowns.
However, that might not be enough against Mahomes and this high octane offence, so I’ll opt for a home win for the Chiefs.
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